Quantum computing is rapidly emerging as a pivotal technological frontier, drawing comparisons to the “Manhattan Project” for its potential to redefine global power dynamics.
According to Moody’s, its capabilities extend far beyond classical systems, offering exponential speed in solving complex challenges across industries from logistics to scientific research, promising not only significant cost savings but also immense innovation potential.
Yet, as the world accelerates towards quantum readiness, this rapid adoption brings with it severe geopolitical and security challenges. Governments are racing to protect their quantum-related supply chains, wrestling with the complexities of export controls, technology transfers, and the security of semiconductor components critical to quantum platforms. This race to secure the technology is being seen as one of the most critical challenges of our era.
Quantum computing’s potential to transform industries is immense. In the logistics and supply chain sectors, it could enable real-time optimisation, reduce waste, and fine-tune global trade networks, revolutionising operations that were previously limited by the constraints of classical computing. Meanwhile, the financial sector anticipates a future where quantum-powered systems transform portfolio management and risk analysis, enabling firms to navigate volatile markets, predict economic shifts and refine investment strategies through advanced modelling and pattern recognition.
The reach of quantum computing goes further, touching areas like artificial intelligence, cryptography and materials science. It offers the ability to advance machine learning algorithms and model complex systems, previously impossible under classical computational constraints, unlocking opportunities across virtually every field.
However, with transformative power comes significant risk. Quantum technology threatens to undermine the encryption protocols that currently secure communications, financial transactions and critical infrastructure. A U.S. official at a recent event attended by Moody’s leaders underscored the urgency of this threat, warning: “Quantum computers can break all of our codes in a nanosecond.” This looming reality is pushing governments to prioritise the development of quantum-resistant cybersecurity measures.
Global adversaries are recognising the value of quantum technologies and are weaving their development into state-led initiatives to enhance economic and national security power. In response, nations like the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, along with entities such as the Dubai Electronic Security Center, are bolstering oversight of quantum technology ecosystems to prevent vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure and data security.
The RAND Corporation has highlighted the fragmented nature of the quantum supply chain, noting its complexity and opacity. The supply chain encompasses a range of contributors, including startups, academic institutions, and multinationals, complicating efforts to track components and ownership structures, and increasing the risk of intellectual property theft and state-sponsored hacking.
Moody’s emphasises the need for a comprehensive approach to manage these risks, advocating for the mapping of quantum supply chains, surveillance of high-risk patent clusters, and securing of critical components. Governments must utilise open-source intelligence, detailed ownership data, and advanced risk modelling to monitor this evolving landscape effectively.
In preparation for the infrastructural demands that quantum and AI technologies will bring, Moody’s has projected the need for $2tn in computer server infrastructure in the near term, highlighting the importance of assessing facilities for climate and geopolitical risks. Drawing a parallel with the collaborative spirit of the Manhattan Project, Moody’s believes that maintaining quantum superiority will depend on a strategic alliance between governments, industry and academia to ensure secure and sustainable innovation as the quantum revolution unfolds.
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