Payment fraud is no longer simply a technological problem — it is a human one too. Tieto Banktech has identified five trends that are collectively redefining financial crime in 2026.
Social manipulation reaches new heights
The most telling indicator of where fraud is heading lies in the numbers. Cases involving social manipulation climbed 33% between 2024 and 2025, but the scale of growth tells only part of the story, it said. The nature of these attacks has changed fundamentally.
Rather than firing off a single deceptive message and hoping for the best, fraudsters now invest considerable time cultivating relationships with their targets over days or even weeks.
Tieto Banktech head of financial crime prevention Gunnar Koren said, “To combat tomorrow’s fraud, understanding technology is no longer enough. As fraud now relies just as heavily on human judgement, we must equally understand human behaviour.”
Deepfakes and AI make deception dangerously convincing
Technology is amplifying the problem, it said. AI tools capable of generating synthetic voices, fabricated video footage and highly personalised written content are making it easier than ever to construct scenarios that appear entirely legitimate.
Koren said, “When AI can imitate both voices and faces, fraud becomes more convincing than ever before. This creates a fraud landscape that is increasingly difficult to navigate. Once again, understanding human behaviour becomes essential.”
Fraudulent online shops are now a polished operation
The amateur scam page is fast becoming a relic. Fake online shops have undergone a dramatic professionalisation, with fraudsters now operating slick storefronts that are visually indistinguishable from legitimate retailers and tightly woven into mainstream digital advertising channels such as Facebook. When one front is taken down, another can be stood up within hours, Tieto said.
Criminal networks fragment money flows across borders
Cross-border operations represent another growing headache for fraud prevention teams. Criminal networks are deliberately routing funds through multiple countries, breaking transactions into smaller components to evade detection. The recruitment of money mules, drawn in through financial desperation, social pressure or outright deception, serves to further obscure the trail and distance the architects of the scheme from its proceeds.
Koren said, “The fraud economy is becoming more professional and global, and therefore – unfortunately – much more adaptable. The harder it becomes to dismantle this infrastructure, the more crucial international cooperation between banks, authorities and technology players will be.”
Eroding trust is itself a weapon
The fifth trend cuts deepest. Public confidence in digital systems is weakening, and fraudsters are acutely aware of that fact. Consumers are growing more cautious about how their data is collected and used, even as they expect greater protection from an increasingly digital world. Organisations face the unenviable task of hardening their defences without alienating the very users they are trying to protect.
Koren said, “Trust in digital systems is a foundation society cannot afford to lose – and fraudsters know this. Going forward, the focus must not only be on technology and the responsible use of data, but also on building and maintaining trust through transparency and dialogue.”
A connected threat demands a connected response
What makes these five trends particularly concerning is how each one reinforces the others. And all of it becomes more dangerous in an environment where public trust in digital systems is already fraying.
Koren said, “The organisations that succeed in fraud prevention will be those able to view technology, behaviour, and collaboration as interconnected.”
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