The pace of change in financial crime has accelerated dramatically over the past two years, forcing institutions, regulators and governments to reassess long-held assumptions about risk, responsibility and resilience.
In the first instalment of a new thought-leadership series, criminologist Dr Nicola Harding recently spoke with Taavi Tamkivi, CEO and co-founder of Salv, to reflect on how earlier predictions have played out and what those lessons reveal about the future of crime prevention.
According to Salv, their discussion draws on insights from the 2024 and 2025 editions of the Fincrime Time Machine, an initiative that aggregates forecasts from financial crime practitioners across Europe, including experts at Revolut, TransUnion, SEB and Zempler Bank.
A recurring theme is the value of reflection. Looking back, Tamkivi argues, is not about hindsight for its own sake but about understanding how policy, technology and operational decisions shape the future of financial crime prevention.
“We need to analyse more consciously the trends which have happened and which will happen… because ultimately we are the ones designing the future of crime fighting — in terms of policies, procedures, technologies, operations, skills and so on.”
One of the clearest shifts identified in the conversation is the rise of Authorised Push Payment fraud. Tamkivi explains that what is often referred to as scam fraud has fundamentally changed how institutions view anti-money laundering. Rather than diverting attention away from AML, the surge in APP fraud has strengthened it, drawing additional resources and public focus to the money laundering ecosystem that enables scams to succeed.
“When scam fraud started to spike… I was afraid that the money laundering side would lose focus. But actually, what happened was that fraud and AML teams both leaned in. AML didn’t just keep its attention — it gained more.”
He goes further, describing how scam fraud has made the consequences of financial crime tangible for the public. “People understand scam fraud,” Taavi says. “Money laundering can feel too distant — but the scam makes it real.”
That public visibility has pushed financial crime higher up the political agenda. Over the past two years, both Harding and Tamkivi have observed a marked increase in government involvement, from the creation of task forces to new legislation and even the appointment of ministers dedicated to tackling APP fraud.
“It was a real surprise for me how big it’s become,” Taavi explains. “Governments are now creating task forces, passing new laws, and in some countries appointing dedicated ministers focused on APP fraud.”
In his view, scam fraud now commands the same level of political urgency as emerging technologies. “In the broader world, scam fraud is now seen as important as AI.” Harding links this shift to the fact that scams increasingly affect ordinary citizens, transforming financial crime from a niche regulatory concern into a national security issue.
Read the daily RegTech news
Copyright © 2026 RegTech Analyst
Copyright © 2018 RegTech Analyst
