When it comes to national security, two of the most dangerous misjudgements are underestimating an adversary or overestimating one’s own strength. NATO has identified these critical failures as symptoms of organisational complacency—a costly oversight in today’s fast-evolving threat landscape.
At Moody’s, this gap in awareness is addressed through a concept known as “cognitive preparedness”, a strategic model closely aligned with NATO’s call for “cognitive superiority”.
Cognitive preparedness is rooted in the idea of deep, contextual intelligence—an approach that allows decision-makers to fully understand the environment they operate in, the nature of their adversaries, and the limitations or strengths within their own systems. By adopting this mindset, governments and security agencies can pre-empt threats, respond more efficiently, and maintain a strategic edge in an increasingly complex world.
The first step in this process is building situational awareness. This involves collecting reliable intelligence on the posturing, capabilities, partnerships, and ecosystem influences surrounding adversarial entities. Moody’s achieves this by deploying hundreds of analysts to continuously refine and validate data—avoiding over-reliance on scraping tools and providing stakeholders with intelligence they can trust. These insights enable more responsive and consistent decision-making across domains.
The second dimension involves enriching this awareness into situational understanding. Here, it is not enough to know what the adversary is doing—security leaders must understand why they’re doing it. This requires cultural, operational, and strategic insight into the adversary’s decision-making processes. Only through this level of intelligence can organisations truly anticipate how threats may evolve.
The third and final element is gaining cognitive advantage—turning awareness and understanding into action. This means being able to out-think and out-manoeuvre threats in real time, across every domain: land, sea, air, space, cyber, and information. Frameworks like NATO’s C2 and the U.S. Department of Defense’s JADC2 highlight the need for coordinated, real-time command capabilities across these interconnected battle spaces. Moody’s helps clients build this advantage through targeted, data-rich insights that enable faster, more strategic decisions.
Moody’s intelligence tools provide a comprehensive threat picture. Their datasets and risk analytics support governments in identifying sanction circumvention, exposing front companies and adversarial linkages, and safeguarding critical industries. One case revealed a long-standing UK business connection to adversarial nations, with directorships tied to high-risk sectors including homeland security and aerospace.
Through its data analytics capabilities, Moody’s has also mapped thousands of entities across NATO nations linked to foreign adversaries. These include state-owned firms and sanctioned organisations, many operating in sensitive sectors such as telecoms and transport. Tools like Orbis offer further transparency, helping identify shifts in beneficial ownership that could compromise security.
Ultimately, preparedness is the strongest defence against complacency. As threats grow in scale and sophistication, so too must the capabilities of those tasked with mitigating them. Moody’s data-driven approach ensures decision-makers are not only informed but are empowered to act decisively and proactively.
“Thinking five deep”—a reference to seeing the full operational spectrum across all domains—is the new standard. And for those armed with the right tools and insights, today’s risks can become tomorrow’s strategic advantages.
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